Our ferry to Alaska leaves tomorrow. Sadly, we will not be getting on that boat. We held onto our tickets for as long as we could, but it simply does not make sense to travel this summer with the continued challenges posed by Covid-19. Canada will not be allowing tourists from the US into the country anytime soon and some of the remote communities along the route are not too keen on visitors either. Given the current situation, their stance seems quite reasonable.
We are disappointed with this change of plans, but all-in-all we cannot complain: we are still healthy, our families are safe, and new opportunities have come up for us. After a spring of bouncing between temporary housing, we have moved back to Orcas Island in Washington. Improbably, we have already found jobs and a beautiful place to live. The plan is to stay for at least a year and see if next summer is more feasible for the expedition.
There were many factors driving this decision and we had to consider the risks of the following scenarios:
The ferry to Alaska cancelling (or delaying) service a second time
The Canadian border still being closed by the time we get there in August
One or both of us coming down with Covid-19 while in the wilderness
Unintentionally bringing Covid-19 to a remote village
Any run-of-the-mill accident requiring rescue and medical resources that are needed elsewhere right now
A family member becoming ill and requiring quick travel home
There are many ways to assess risk for any given scenario/ combination of possible scenarios that might come up. One simple way to is to consider how likely a particular event is versus the consequences of that event happening. This can give you a sense of if that risk is acceptable.
We considered all the scenarios on our list (plus a few more) and felt confident that we could minimize the probability of them happening: we follow safety protocols (both for Covid and kayaking) and would spend the vast majority of the trip “socially distant” from others. All-in-all, the risk was low for any particular problem.
The consequences of any of the scenarios occurring, however, are potentially catastrophic not only for the trip, but to our health and the health of those we come into contact with. To put it in risk assessment terms, “Low Probability, Very High Consequence.” That was true for nearly every scenario we evaluated. Choosing to go on the trip would mean stacking the deck against ourselves; any one domino falling could trigger a cascade of terrible consequences. It is wise to avoid putting yourself in those kinds of situations anytime you are on the sea.
More than that, this expedition is simply unessential travel. At this time there is no justification for putting people who must travel, and those who live in these remote places, at any additional risk. We are all connected and our individual decisions have an impact on ourselves, our neighbors, and the larger community. This crisis has shown that in a clear, irrefutable way.
So now we are settling in to life in Washington and exploring the waters surrounding our new home. Hopefully the opportunity to head out on expedition will come up again. Until it does, we will be doing our best to evaluate all the risks in our lives to keep ourselves, and those around us, safe and sane. We hope you are able to do the same.
Take care,
Calvin and Robin
Headed out in the islands.